Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has released a report that remains optimistic about Southeast Asia becoming a global hub. It estimates that by 2040, EV sales in the region will account for 56% of total vehicle sales, driving demand for infrastructure such as charging stations and increasing electricity demand by over 260 times.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has released a report that remains optimistic about Southeast Asia becoming a global hub. It estimates that by 2040, EV sales in the region will account for 56% of total vehicle sales, driving demand for infrastructure such as charging stations and increasing electricity demand by over 260 times.
Favorable EV Policies and Entry of Chinese Manufacturers Accelerate ASEAN Market Development
On the 26th, BNEF released the Southeast Asia Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024, analyzing the current situation in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines—six key markets for EVs in Southeast Asia.
The study shows that in 2023, the sales of EVs in these six countries grew threefold to 153,500 units. This significant growth can be attributed to two main factors: the promotion of policies by various governments and the demand generated by Chinese electric vehicles. Thailand contributed the most, with sales reaching 86,400 units, growing fourfold.
Komal Kareer, BNEF's Clean Transport Analyst for Southeast Asia, stated in the report that competition between new and traditional manufacturers, coupled with decreasing battery production costs, will accelerate the adoption of EVs over the next decade.
Looking ahead, the report estimates that under the "Economic Transition Scenario," EV sales will reach 2.7 million units by 2040, representing 56% of total vehicle sales. To support this vast market, infrastructure such as charging stations will also grow rapidly, with an estimated need for 11.5 million charging stations and electricity demand surging to 85 billion kilowatt-hours—an increase of 263 times compared to 2023.
BNEF's analysis indicates that Southeast Asia will become a major market for electric vehicles, with Thailand making the largest contribution to growth.
Global EV Growth Slows, Impacting Tesla and Vinfast's ASEAN Expansion Plans
However, the report also emphasizes that internal combustion engine vehicles, including motorcycles, will still account for 76% of the market share in 2040. Notably, the growth of the electric motorcycle market has slowed, with 80% of sales coming from Vietnam, making it the region's largest market.
As Southeast Asian countries continue to encourage the use of electric vehicles, the automotive industry in the region will face significant changes, with Chinese manufacturers playing a crucial role in gradually replacing the dominance previously held by Japan and South Korea. This also provides a new direction for China's surplus production capacity.
The low-price strategy has allowed Chinese manufacturers to gain a foothold in the Southeast Asian market. In contrast, the global electric vehicle market has seen lackluster performance over the past year, with major companies like Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and Tesla announcing production cuts. Reports suggest that Tesla is pausing its expansion plans in Southeast Asia, while Vinfast recently announced a delay in cooperation with Thai dealers, and its new factory in the U.S. has been pushed back to 2028.